Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change: Implications for Asia
Tamma Carleton, Assistant Professor, Environmental Economics, Climate Change, University of California, Santa Barbara
Jiacan Yuan, Associate Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Fudan University
Designing effective climate change mitigation and adaptation policies requires comprehensive assessment of the projected damages from climate change. However, current climate policy is informed by outdated models lacking empirical grounding. In this talk, we use subnational mortality records across 40 countries to generate data-driven estimates of the global mortality consequences of climate change. We show that both extreme cold and extreme heat raise mortality rates, especially for the elderly, the poor, and populations that experience these extremes infrequently. These heterogeneous nonlinear responses to warming lead to highly differentiated projected impacts of climate change across the globe. In this talk we focus in particular on the Asia-Pacific region, where mortality risk generally rises with a warming climate, but projected damages differ substantially within and across countries. We conclude by demonstrating how these results can be used to inform local adaptation policy within an individual city, using Chengdu, China as a case study, and point to new developments in climate science that will enable future improvements in mortality risk assessment across Asia.